Can the Stars Really Move the Stock Market?

For ages, people have looked to the sky for answers—about love, luck, careers, and even the stock market. It sounds wild, but communities of traders genuinely watch things like:

• Full Moons
• Mercury Retrogrades
• Planetary alignments
• Lunar cycles

They use these celestial events to decide when to buy or sell.

But does any of this actually help predict market moves?

To find out, I built a real data experiment, checking market history against astrological events over 15 to 20 years.

The results were… well, surprisingly interesting.

Part 1: Mercury Retrograde and Market Wobbles

What is Mercury Retrograde, anyway?

Astrologers say Mercury Retrograde periods bring communication breakdowns, confusion, bad timing, and tech glitches. Basically, a lot of chaos.

So, the theory goes, when Mercury appears to move backward in the sky, markets should also get a bit chaotic.

My Hypothesis:

If Mercury Retrograde genuinely affects markets, we should see:

• More volatility
• More sudden price drops
• Lower average returns

The Test: 15 Years of S&P 500 Data

I mapped every Mercury Retrograde period against the S&P 500's daily performance for 15 years.

The Results:

• Slightly lower average returns
• A bit more volatility
• A higher number of 1%+ intraday moves

These weren't huge swings, not dramatic at all. But they also weren't random.

My Take

Does Mercury itself cause market shifts? Almost certainly no.

But what about trader psychology? That's a different story. A significant number of investors believe retrogrades cause chaos. When enough people share that belief, it can influence their decisions.

It's a classic self-fulfilling prophecy.

Part 2: Moon Cycles and Market Momentum

The Moon's pull on human behavior is one of our oldest beliefs. Some financial astrologers claim:

• Full Moons bring emotional extremes.
• New Moons kick off new trends.
• Moon cycles generally affect market momentum.

It sounds like something from a fantasy novel, but it’s easy enough to test with data.

My Hypothesis:

If Moon phases influence our psychology, markets should show:

• Shifts in momentum
• Reversal patterns
• Short-term volatility

All of this should cluster around Full or New Moon dates.

The Test: 20+ Years of Market Prices

Here’s what the numbers revealed:

New Moon

• Markets tended to be more positive in the three days following a New Moon.
• There was a mild trend continuation effect.

Full Moon

• Markets showed slightly weaker performance.
• The chance of a reversal seemed to increase.

My Take

This doesn't mean the Moon controls stock prices. But human behavior does run in cycles: sleep patterns, mood, how much risk we're willing to take.

It's plausible that lunar cycles subtly influence:

• Trader sentiment
• Decision-making
• Emotional risk appetite

Again, this isn't strong enough to base a trading strategy on. But the effect showed up in the data.

Part 3: Planetary Alignments and Volatility Spikes

Some astrologers suggest that major planetary configurations line up with:

• Market crashes
• Periods of panic
• Liquidity shocks
• Key economic turning points

They even link the 1987 crash to a rare alignment. So, I checked this too.

My Hypothesis:

Big planetary events should correlate with:

• Spikes in the VIX (the market's "fear gauge")
• Clusters of high volatility
• General market uncertainty

The Test

Do planetary alignments consistently coincide with volatility?

Surprisingly, some did.

But here’s the critical catch: many of these alignments happen around:

• Earnings seasons
• Federal Reserve meetings
• Known seasonal volatility cycles
• Other macroeconomic events

So, the astrological correlation might just be overlapping with real, observable financial cycles.

My Take

Planetary alignments turned out to be the weakest of all the astrological signals I tested. Most correlations here seemed more like coincidence than causation.

So, Can Astrology Actually Predict the Stock Market?

After running all these tests, here’s the honest truth:

What Astrology Can Do

• Point to behavioral cycles
• Highlight moments of increased emotional volatility
• Help traders become more aware of their own psychology
• Act as a risk-awareness tool
• (Surprisingly) reduce trading stress

What Astrology Cannot Do

• Predict specific stock prices
• Forecast market crashes
• Generate consistent profits
• Replace solid, data-driven strategies

The Real Insight: Astrology Reflects Human Behavior

Astrology might show up in market data, but not because planets manipulate prices. It's because markets are driven by people—and people follow emotional cycles. Some are predictable, some are irrational, and some are just beautifully chaotic.

Astrology, in this context, is simply another way to observe these cycles, even if its underlying explanation isn't scientific.

My Own Trading Experiment Using Astrology

Naturally, I had to try trading with astrology for a full month. Here's what happened:

My Strategy

• New Moon: Leaned cautiously bullish.
• Full Moon: Reduced overall risk.
• Mercury Retrograde: Tightened my stop losses.
• Planetary events: Avoided overtrading.

The Results

• Win rate: Around 50%
• Profit: Near break-even
• Risk: Higher than I expected
• Stress: Much lower

Astrology didn't improve my trading performance. But it did improve my discipline.

Ironically, following an irrational system helped me behave more rationally.

Astrology Isn't a Strategy – It's a Mindset Tool

Astrology won't help you outperform the S&P 500. It won't replace technical analysis. It won't predict the next recession.

But it can help you:

• Stay calm
• Trade less impulsively
• Think before acting
• Recognize psychological patterns
• Add structure to your trading mindset

And that—more than any planet—is what truly influences your success as a trader.